Nigeria’s Oil Revenue Soars to N50.88tn in 2024 Amid Production Fluctuations
Nigeria’s crude oil revenue surged to approximately N50.88tn in 2024, according to data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The figure underscores the nation’s reliance on crude oil exports as a major revenue source, despite production challenges and market volatility.
The country produced 408.68 million barrels of crude oil in 2024, complemented by condensate output, bringing the total to 566.79 million barrels. A report by Statista Research Department pegged the average price of crude at $80.53 per barrel last year, translating to a revenue of $32.91bn. At an exchange rate of N1,546 to the dollar, this amounts to the staggering N50.88tn.
Production Shortfalls and Budget Projections
While Nigeria fell short of its 2024 budget target of producing 649.7 million barrels through a daily average of 1.78 million barrels, it still exceeded revenue expectations, thanks to favourable crude prices and the depreciation of the naira.
The NUPRC data revealed that the country’s average daily crude production stood at 1.484 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December, below its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5mbpd. Efforts to ramp up production to 2mbpd in the coming year are ongoing, with December’s combined crude and condensate output averaging 1.67mbpd.
Market Volatility and Pricing Dynamics
Global oil prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2024, with Brent crude trading as high as $86.87 per barrel in March following geopolitical tensions but falling below $70 in September for the first time since 2021. Nigeria’s flagship grades, Brass River and Qua Iboe, mirrored these trends, peaking at $90.07 per barrel in March before dropping to $74.57 by September.
Despite the volatility, NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer Mele Kyari expressed confidence in the government’s budgetary projections. “The benchmark price of $77.96 per barrel is realistic and achievable,” he remarked, citing an average market price oscillating between $75 and $80.
Challenges and Outlook
Production instability remained a significant challenge throughout the year, with daily output dipping to 1.23mbpd in March before recovering slightly to 1.3mbpd by July. This inconsistency underscores Nigeria’s struggles with operational inefficiencies, theft, and underinvestment in the oil sector.
Kyari noted that Nigeria’s total production figure includes condensates, which are exempt from OPEC quotas. This allowed the country to produce beyond its allocated crude quota, contributing to the overall revenue boost.
Distribution and the Path Forward
The N50.88tn revenue represents the combined earnings of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), international oil companies (IOCs), and indigenous producers. However, allocations to government tiers, operational costs, and revenue sharing agreements mean the net benefit to the country remains a fraction of this total.
As Nigeria pushes to meet and exceed its OPEC production quotas, the government faces the dual challenge of stabilising production levels and addressing the structural issues that continue to undermine the industry. With plans to boost daily output and ongoing efforts to curb oil theft, the focus will remain on achieving a sustainable balance between production capacity and global market demands.
