Nigeria’s Oil Production Rises, But Targets Still Elusive
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, grew by 9.9% in November 2024, reaching 1.69 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This marks an improvement from the 1.538 million bpd recorded in October but falls short of the country’s 2024 budget benchmark of 1.78 million bpd and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) allocated quota.
Liquid crude output rose by 11.42% to 1.48 million bpd in November, up from 1.33 million bpd in October, signalling some success in efforts to revitalise upstream production. However, condensate oil production — exempt from OPEC quotas — slipped marginally by 0.01%, dropping to 204,828 bpd from 204,806 bpd.
A Persistent Gap in Production Goals
Despite claims by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) that national production has hit 1.8 million bpd, actual figures continue to lag behind targets. The shortfall highlights persistent structural and operational challenges in the oil sector, even as Nigeria retains its position as Africa’s leading oil producer.
In its monthly report, OPEC confirmed Nigeria’s crude output at 1.48 million bpd for November, an increase from 1.33 million bpd the previous month. This output placed Nigeria ahead of Algeria (908,000 bpd) and Congo (268,000 bpd), solidifying its leadership on the continent.
However, Nigeria’s figures remain below the OPEC-allocated quota of 1.5 million bpd, a target the country hopes to surpass as it works towards its 2025 production goal of 2.06 million bpd, inclusive of condensates, outlined in the draft 2025 Appropriation Bill.
Government Optimism Amid Structural Constraints
Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), emphasised that OPEC’s extension of Nigeria’s production quota aligns with the country’s aspirations. “These resolutions align with our 2025 production target of 2.06 million barrels per day,” he said.
Meanwhile, the recent commissioning of the Port Harcourt refinery, which began processing 60,000 bpd of crude oil in late November, represents a critical step towards increasing domestic refining capacity and reducing reliance on imports.
A Shifting Global Landscape
OPEC reported a modest overall increase in its collective output, with total production from OPEC-12 averaging 26.66 million bpd in November, up 104,000 bpd month-on-month. Libya, Iran, and Nigeria contributed most to the gains, while production declined in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait.
Outside OPEC, production from non-member countries rose by 219,000 bpd in November, driven by Kazakhstan and Malaysia.
Path Forward
While the gains in crude output reflect some progress, the road to achieving Nigeria’s ambitious oil production targets remains fraught with hurdles. Addressing infrastructure deficits, regulatory bottlenecks, and security challenges in the oil-producing regions will be crucial.
With international oil markets increasingly volatile, sustaining and improving Nigeria’s production levels will not only secure vital revenue streams but also reaffirm the nation’s standing in the global energy landscape.
