Dangote Refinery Now Meeting 60% of Nigeria’s Petrol Demand
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The Dangote Petrochemical Refinery is now supplying up to 60% of Nigeria’s domestic petrol demand, according to a new report by S&P Global. This development is seen as a significant step towards stabilising the country’s fuel supply and reducing its reliance on imports.
However, the report contradicts claims by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, which recently disclosed that the country’s three operational refineries contribute less than half of its daily petrol consumption.
Since commencing operations in January 2024, the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery has been closely watched, with analysts predicting it could drastically reduce Nigeria’s fuel import deficit.
The refinery’s key gasoline unit, the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker, became operational in September, and officials have promised it could reach full capacity by mid-March. According to a Dangote Group executive, the site is producing over 30 million litres of gasoline daily, reportedly surpassing 85% capacity utilisation.
This output, estimated at around 200,000 barrels per day, could cover a significant portion of Nigeria’s estimated 350,000 barrels per day petrol demand. However, industry sources remain sceptical, citing a lack of transparency over production volumes.
Despite the doubts, Nigeria’s petrol imports plunged to an all-time low in January 2025, with data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showing imports of just 62,000 barrels per day, down from an average of 200,000 barrels per day in 2024.
“They are importing a lot less, and traders are making up the shortfall from offshore Lome,” one trader noted, though doubts persist over the 85% utilisation claim. Others have pointed to the challenge of tracking smaller import volumes from the transhipment hub off the coast of Togo.
Although exact figures are difficult to verify, experts agree that the Dangote refinery is largely responsible for the decline in imports. “They’re supplying the market at frankly (pleasantly) surprising volumes,” said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence.
Effiong noted that several major fuel retailers have switched to sourcing from Dangote, while many state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) outlets struggle to stay stocked.
However, the situation remains fluid. A brief outage at the refinery’s catalytic cracker in January triggered a spike in European petrol exports to Nigeria. Analysts warn that as the facility continues to ramp up, operational disruptions could still impact import volumes.
Rasool Barouni, head of refining at Commodity Insights, cautioned that the complex nature of the Dangote refinery’s operations poses a high risk of outages. “Operating a large Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit presents significant challenges, particularly in the early years of operation,” he said.
Meanwhile, logistical hurdles also loom, as the refinery relies on a mix of trucking and maritime deliveries to distribute its output domestically. Traders estimate that about 15,000 metric tonnes are delivered by truck, with larger quantities reimported by sea.
Despite these challenges, market watchers agree that the Dangote refinery is poised to dominate Nigeria’s petrol market. “There are still volumes coming from Europe, but something like 50 to 80 per cent of the exports are gone,” a European trader observed.
As the refinery’s operations stabilise, Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports could be significantly reduced, reshaping the dynamics of the West African energy market.
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