Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Figures Spark Discrepancy Debate

Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production saw a slight increase to 1.307 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July, according to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This figure, released on Monday in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2024, challenges claims made by President Bola Tinubu and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, that the country’s oil production had surged to 1.6mbpd.

OPEC’s report indicated that Nigeria added a modest 30,000 barrels per day, raising its oil output from 1.27mbpd in June to 1.307mbpd in July. This stands in stark contrast to President Tinubu’s assertion during his nationwide broadcast on August 4, where he boasted of a significant increase in oil production by over 300,000 barrels per day. Tinubu attributed this alleged surge to reforms implemented in May 2024 aimed at addressing issues within the Petroleum Industry Act.

“Our once-declining oil and gas industry is experiencing a resurgence on the back of the reforms I announced in May 2024 to address the gaps in the Petroleum Industry Act. Last month, we increased our oil production to 1.61 million barrels per day, and our gas assets are receiving the attention they deserve,” Tinubu stated confidently. He also claimed that these reforms had rekindled investor interest, with two significant foreign direct investments worth over half a billion dollars already secured.

Similarly, on July 26, NUPRC’s Komolafe told the House of Representatives Special Committee during a hearing on oil theft and losses that Nigeria’s average daily production had reached 1.61mbpd by July 23, 2024. This declaration came just weeks after the commission reported that June’s average daily production was 1.27mbpd.

However, OPEC’s report presents a different picture. It noted that the 1.307mbpd figure for July was based on direct communication from Nigeria, and secondary sources placed the output slightly higher at 1.38mbpd, a marginal increase from the previous month’s 1.36mbpd.

This is not the first time that official Nigerian figures have clashed with OPEC’s data. In May, while Nigerian authorities claimed that oil production was nearing 1.7mbpd, OPEC’s data revealed a dip to 1.25mbpd, marking a loss of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month.

Despite these discrepancies, the Nigerian government remains optimistic about achieving higher production targets. The Federal Government recently reiterated its goal of reaching over two million barrels per day by the end of the year. Speaking at a meeting with maritime stakeholders, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC, Mele Kyari, emphasised the company’s commitment to this ambitious target, highlighting ongoing efforts to curb oil theft and pipeline vandalism.

“The target is to increase production to two million barrels by the end of the year, and we are fully committed to doing that. The support from the Nigerian Navy has been invaluable in reducing oil theft and pipeline vandalism, which has significantly decreased. We hope to sustain this progress to achieve our target,” Kyari stated, represented by Folorunsho Karim, Managing Director of Pipeline NNPC.

As Nigeria strives to boost its oil production, the divergence between official claims and OPEC’s data raises questions about the true state of the country’s oil industry. The coming months will reveal whether the government’s optimistic projections align with the realities on the ground.